Will the Lights Stay on?

Despite load-shedding being declared eliminated almost 3-4 years ago, the latest reports of power outages throughout the country has come up as a cause of concern for people and has rekindled the fire of suspicion which first ignited when Kulman Ghising’s tenure as the Managing Director of Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) was over. Reports of the national electricity provider performing frequent power cuts in an undeclared way didn’t just outraged people, some people even took it as a sign that a wicked plot to bring back the load-shedding is in place. Considering that the cuts have really become more frequent in the recent months, people’s suspicion is understandable. And it also makes sense that the people, who still retain dreadful memories of the days when they would have to sit through 18 terrible hours of load shedding every day, are easily triggered by abrupt interruptions of power.

For the past few years, people had a good time when it came to electricity. Of course, grid electricity isn’t still accessible to all, but the people who did have the access enjoyed a much reliable supply of electricity than the past. Even with COVID disrupting the way of life, regular electricity supply during the pandemic provided people with a means to get on with their life. People could take online classes, work from home, get connected with loved ones and remain entertained even when they were trapped inside the four walls of their flats or homes. In those times, prolonged power interruptions would have been intolerable to residents of cities but, thankfully, the electricity didn’t go off. And, amid the pandemic when Ghising’s tenure as chief of the utility ended, people grew fearful as it was only after the appointment of Ghising that the load-shedding was declared a history.

Held in high regards as the one who once and for all, put an end to load-shedding, the Managing Director of NEA, Kulman Ghising’s reputation rivals the best of the bests in Nepal. It is of no wonder that NEA greatly benefitted from his leadership. However, the concept that load-shedding cannot be kept at bay without Ghising in charge, is not just problematic, but also a dangerous one. Running an institution such as NEA doesn’t just require a capable leader in the forefront, it requires skilful engineers and proficient managers throughout the organization. In such an organization, competence shouldn’t be an accessory but a norm and the entire organization should be more like an assembly line where effective leaders and their successors are produced. Certainly, a person serving two terms as the head of NEA will not exactly cripple the entire organizational growth trajectory, but the idea that only one person can stand between absolute chaos and complete orderliness is very misplaced. It even reflects badly on people as it implies that they are looking for someone to fix all the problem and not be bothered with understanding the real problem. And it is dangerous, because while doing so, people are ready to forego the responsibilities that comes with being a consumer. Increased vigilance on behalf of people is a good sign, but merely speaking to retain or reinstate a person isn’t good enough. Because then, we aren’t contributing to making the organization more accountable and proficient, we are merely counting on a single person for making all the difference, who is bound to leave, sooner or later.

Electric power system, by nature is a very complicated system and although most often power cuts are nuisance, sometimes, they are important. One reason why power cut takes place is the insufficiency of power itself. Next is inadequacies of infrastructures that carry electricity. Third are obstructions occurring due to the acts of god which cripple the existing infrastructures and finally, there are preventive cuts done to prevent an even more unpleasant scenario at the present or in the future. It is a well-known fact that Nepal’s insufficiency of hydroelectric power in the winter season calls for more import of electricity. However, the ability to import power is also determined by the existing transmission lines and substations. Additionally, there are distribution lines that carry electricity all the way from substations, both of which needs to upgrade as people begin to consume more electricity. Considering that existing electricity infrastructures are either old or are in need of replacement or upgrading, power outages are the only way to upgrade, repair or perform maintenance works. And the fact being that Nepal’s demand for power has taken a remarkable hike in the last years, such outages are likely being done to adjust to the situation either by upgrading or repairing the existing infrastructures or as a preemptive measure to avoid more ugly situations. Therefore, nothing so far is indicative of anything chronic like a daily load-shedding.

So, is the load-shedding totally a thing of the past? Since we are not just talking about major cities only, we can’t be too sure, just yet. Nepal’s power system may be developing but it’s still fragile. The way we are investing projects whose output reduce greatly on dry seasons, makes it clear that Nepal will remain a net importer of electricity in winters for the foreseeable future. Also, the track record of NEA in terms of constructing transmission infrastructures so far has been less than impressive. Plus, Nepal’s demand of electricity in winter is bound to increase faster in coming days with people increasingly using induction cooktop, heaters and even electric vehicles. The worst feature about these equipment is that regardless of the total electricity they consume, they increase the overall demand of power for specific time periods. This may cause the utility to resort to performing short-lived interruptions in the dry seasons to manage the loads in certain places. Also, in the past decade alone, Nepal suffered from one moderate earthquake, one blockade and one pandemic. There’s no certainty that these or other disasters like landslides, floods and glacier floods shall not occur in the future. In that case, the existing infrastructures may give up or an already sluggish development of power infrastructure will further falter and load-shedding may somehow, somewhere show its face again. But in light of the improving cross-border connectivity, it’s highly unlikely that the entire nation will be subjected to such long hours of daily load-shedding, again.

Despite the inherent vulnerability, however, redundancies within the power system can be created to make the system more resilient and the supply more reliable. But there are two obstacles to it: one is that creating such redundancies increases cost to consumers and at times, a utility’s focus on making electricity more reliable may not turn out to be equitable to families with lower income. And the other is that, adding redundancies to and scaling up the existing electrical system takes significant time. Considering that and the fact that NEA has to fight two battles at once: one of increase reliability to existing grid connected consumers and two, increasing the access of more and more people to the national grid, the utopia where light never goes out is still far into the future.