On Diverting Rivers and Testing Federalism

On June 26, 2021, the Minister of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation, Bishnu Prasad Poudel inaugurated the office of the ambitious Kaligandaki Tinau Diversion Project in Rupandehi district and exclaimed that it shall be a ‘game changer project’. The move was immediately met with objection and the central government was criticized for advancing the project unilaterally without due consultation by the government of Gandaki province. Although the current political leadership of Nepal seems desirous to move ahead with this project, with a constitutionally empowered province seeking role in the decision making, question arises as to if the implementation of the project is not going to be as straightforward as anticipated.

Kaligandaki Tinau Diversion Project was envisaged with an obvious goal in mind: to help Butwal-Bhairahawa region realize its full potential as an industrial metropolis and to promote agricultural productivity in the adjoining areas. Despite its proximity to India as well as Rupandehi’s long-standing reputation as a major industrial hub of Nepal, the region has some natural limitations. Lumbini only stands as the sixth out of seven provinces in terms of potential for hydroelectricity generation. Additionally, the availability of water resources in the area also cannot justify the potential it carries in terms of production, agricultural or otherwise. Implementation of the project shall entail construction of a 126 MW hydropower plant and irrigation infrastructures capable of irrigating over one hundred thousand hectares of land in Lumbini province. The power generated from the project may serve as a backbone of power supply in a region and the diverted water can raise agricultural yield in the region thereby giving this region a much-needed boost.

Conceptualized more than a decade ago, the pre-feasibility study of the project was concluded back in 2011. But even after more than 10 years, the project has been in a limbo owing to various factors such as religious, environmental, financial, and political. The bone of contention regarding the project is the amount of benefits that each province gets when river Kaligandaki, which also serves as a border of Gandaki and Lumbini Province is diverted from its original course at Ramdi of Syangja district, and dropped to the basin of Tinau river in Palpa for hydroelectricity generation and irrigation in Lumbini Province. The benefits may eventually trickle down to Gandaki also, but under current design, there are no direct benefit for Gandaki province for forgoing the sustained use of river Kaligandaki. Under the federal system, all states are expected to pursue their own avenues to prosperity and the disproportionate nature of benefits has led to criticism of the project in Gandaki region.

But the challenges don’t end there. Another issue in implementation of the project is its impact on the enduring religious significance of Devghat, the renowned pilgrimage that lies in the confluence of river Kaligandaki and Trishuli. Diverting river Kaligandaki in the manner proposed will be off-putting to just about all the people in the region who revere Devghat dham as a center of faith. Another major challenge in execution of the project is it’s potential to conflict with Nepal’s commitment to the Gandak Agreement concluded between Nepal and India which refrains from any forms of trans-basin river use. And even if Nepal becomes successful in exempting itself from that particular clause of the agreement, there is bound to be a problem of decreased flow in Gandaki River in dry region, which doesn’t just upset the relationship with India over the matters of treaty but also reduces the benefit Nepal enjoys under the treaty.

As some may have suspected, the untimely declaration of the project during a volatile political climate and amidst a health emergency, most likely has some discreet political objectives. And even though the project is faced with many challenges, the opportunity presented by the project, however, cannot be simply dismissed. Fortunately, the project is still in an initial phase, hence, nothing so far carved in stones. There are still opportunities for the government to plan the project in a manner that doesn’t disrupt the national harmony while seeking to gain benefit of the project. To ensure that, first and foremost, a greater dialogue among the national stakeholders will be essential. Based on the resulting consensus, a proper benefit sharing plan should be laid out to the satisfaction of all the parties. As per necessity, certain aspects of the project can be modified to mitigate the possible adverse effect of the project but by retaining most of its benefits. The central government should also instigate talks with India seeking and offering clarity on the project and the treaty so that no scenarios remain ambiguous between the countries.

To address the issue of deterioration of Devghat, government may take lessons from Kaligandaki ‘A’ Hydroelectric Project, which releases a major fraction of the river’s discharge back to the river in certain religious occasion like Maghe Sakranti. Governments should also adopt a policy of expediting construction of a storage project in upstream of Kaligandaki ‘A’ project so that the minimum discharge of 20%, which shall be flowing in the river at all times under the current plan, is further increased thereby restoring Devghat to its original glory.

The mitigation of the threat to benefits enjoyed by Nepal and India under the Gandak agreement will be more complex and shall require Nepal a lot of careful planning and timely executions. To compensate for the decreased discharge of River Gandaki in dry seasons, regulated discharge of hydropower dams made on rivers in Gandaki basin can be of aid. Feasibility study of Budhigandaki Hydroelectric Project (1200 Megawatts) by Tractbel Engineering indicates that water regulated through the dam in Budhigandaki river can alone compensate for Gandaki’s monthly loss of flow resulting because of Kaligandaki diversion in all months except May.

To sum up, Nepal has been gifted with sizeable hydropower potential and its optimum utilization is a must to propel the wheels of economy towards greater heights. So, it is vital that we keep an open mind to possible ways in which this resource can be utilized. The project is undoubtedly beneficial for Lumbini province and can catapult this region towards prosperity. One cannot deny that the benefits will be advantageous to the entire nation also. But, under the federal system, the central government cannot single-handedly decide on the utilization of state boundary rivers. This provision is enshrined in the Constitution of Nepal through the list of concurrent power between Federation and the States. In consideration to that, this project may stand as a test of Nepal’s approach to federalism. Therefore, the central government must ensure that the project gains traction only after all necessary steps are taken to guarantee equitable distribution of benefits among participating states. If executed properly, this project shall set a precedent in terms of provincial cooperation in utilization of water resources. Otherwise, the commencement of the project, or even the lack thereof, may sow the seed of eternal mistrust and dispute between the provinces.

Saroj Koirala works as a consultant in Nepali electricity sector.